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Climate impacts in Europe under +1.5°C global warming

GERICS cooperation: New publication

GERICS cooperation: New publication

Satellite image Earth

[Photo: Norman Kuring, NASA/GSFC/Suomi NPP]

How will two additional degrees affect Europe and what might be prevented if global warming is limited to +1.5°C rather than to +2°C? The IMPACT_1.5 initiative has explored this future scenario.

Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob, Dr. Lola Kotova and Dr. Claas Teichmann together with the scientists from six research institutes from Europe (UniRes, TUC, JR, LSCE/IPSL, SMHI) and Iskenderun Technical University in Turkey integrated their competencies to investigate the potential impacts of +1.5°C on various sectors across Europe.

This work was initiated by the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) and developed as an extension of the methods from the EU FP7 project IMPACT2C.

Our results make clear that the world is likely to pass the +1.5oC threshold in the coming decades. A +1.5°C global warming will substantially affect a wide range of economic sectors and regions. For example, heat waves are already nearly twice as likely over southern Europe and the Mediterranean in a +1.5oC world.

Alongside the negative impacts, a number of positive impacts are projected for certain sectors and regions. Summer tourism in some parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors (e.g. migration patterns, food production, etc.) that can and will influence Europe.

Link to the homepage of GERICS

The publication in the scientific journal American Geophysical Union (AGU):

  • AGU-Publikation: Jacob D., Kotova L., Teichmann C., Sobolowski S.P., Vautar R., Donnelly C., Koutroulis A. G., Grillakis M.G , Tsanis I.K, Damm A., Sakalli A., van Vliet M.T.H. (2018). Climate impacts in Europe under +1.5oC global warming. Earth’s Future


Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob

Director of the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS)

Phone: +49 (0) 40 226 338 406

Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS)
Chilehaus - Eingang B

Fischertwiete 1
20095 Hamburg