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Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change risks and effects


Project timeline
November 2001
36 months
October 2004
General Information
PRUDENCE will provide a series of high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe, characterising the variability and level of confidence in these scenarios as a function of uncertainties in model formulation, natural/internal climate variability, and alternative scenarios of future atmospheric composition. The project will provide a quantitative assessment of the risks arising from changes in regional weather and climate in different parts of Europe, by estimating future changes in extreme events such as flooding and windstorms and by providing a robust estimation of the likelihood and magnitude of such changes. The project will also examine the uncertainties in potential impacts induced by the range of climate scenarios developed from the climate modelling results. This will provide useful information for climate modellers on the levels of accuracy in climate scenarios required by impact analysts. Furthermore, a better appreciation of the uncertainty range in calculations of future impacts from climate change may offer new insights into the scope for adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change.
EU-Programme Acronym and Subprogramme AreaFP5-EESD-2000; Global change, climate and biodiversity; Climate change predictions and scenarios(1.1.4.-2.1.3)
Project TypeRTD
Contract NumberEVK2-CT-2001-00132
Co-ordinatorDanish Meteorological Institute (DK)
Total Eligible Costs (€) Hereon Eligible Costs (€) EC Funding for Hereon (€)
6.105.575 615.641
Contact Person at Hereon Dr. Burkhardt Rockel, Institute for Coastal Research, KSR Phone: +49-4152-87 1803, Fax : +49 4152 87 4 1803
E-mail contact
Worldwide Europe

Centro di Calcolo Elettronico dell'Italia Nord Orientale, Bologna (IT), Danish Meteorological Institute (DK), Danmarks Jordbrugs Forskning (DK), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt DLR (DE), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI), Lunds Universitet (SE), Météo France, Centre de Recherches Météorologiques (FR), Risö National Laboratory (DK), Societé de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines (FR), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE), UNESCO (FR), Universidad Complutense (ES), Université de Fribourg (CH), University of Reading (UK)
PRUDENCE website

(completed October 2004)

Last Update: 16. April 2021