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Project

ECOTIP

Ecological Tipping Cascades in the Arctic Seas


ECOTIP is a Horizon 2020 research initiative that aims to understand, predict, and respond to critical changes in Arctic marine ecosystems. With rapidly increasing temperatures and ice loss, Arctic marine environments are experiencing shifts that threaten biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and the communities reliant on these systems. ECOTIP focuses on understanding how these changes may lead to ecological "tipping points"—sudden, often irreversible shifts in ecosystem states that could have far-reaching consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

The project’s primary goal is to provide science-based recommendations to support sustainable management of Arctic marine resources and to aid in the adaptation of ecosystems and communities to environmental changes. ECOTIP emphasizes two crucial ecosystem services: fisheries production and carbon sequestration—both vital to the ecological and socio-economic resilience of the Arctic.

Our department contributes specialized expertise in Bayesian network modelling to ECOTIP’s research, particularly in the areas of fisheries research on capelin and the biological carbon and nitrogen pump.


Fisheries Research on Capelin

Objective
Capelin, a foundational species in Arctic food webs, is critical for supporting higher trophic levels, including fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. Our work focuses on understanding the potential impacts of environmental changes on capelin populations.

Approach
Using Bayesian networks, we integrate various data sources, including environmental variables, biological traits, and fishing pressures, to assess how capelin populations may respond to different future scenarios.

Outcome
This modelling approach provides probabilistic assessments that inform adaptive fisheries management, helping to ensure sustainable use of capelin populations in a rapidly changing Arctic environment.


Biological Carbon Pump

Objective
The biological carbon and nitrogen pump involves the downward transport of carbon and nitrogen from the surface to the deep ocean, where they are sequestered. This process is critical for climate regulation, as it mitigates atmospheric CO₂ levels.

Approach
Our department uses Bayesian network modelling to analyse how biological, chemical, and physical processes—such as phytoplankton production, particle aggregation, and remineralization rates contribute to carbon and nitrogen sequestration.

Outcome
These insights enhance predictions of carbon and nitrogen flux in the Arctic, aiding in more accurate modelling of the global carbon cycle and contributing to climate change mitigation strategies.


Bayesian Network Modelling

  • Integration of Diverse Data: Combining observations, experimental data, and expert knowledge to provide comprehensive, data-driven insights.
  • Uncertainty Quantification: Handling uncertainties in ecological processes, allowing for robust predictions that improve planning and policymaking.
  • Scenario Testing: Modelling various environmental and anthropogenic scenarios to evaluate potential ecosystem responses and tipping points.

Supporting ECOTIP’s Mission

  • Supporting Climate-Resilient Fisheries: Helping Arctic fisheries adapt to changing environmental conditions while preserving ecological balance.
  • Enhancing Carbon Sequestration Models: Improving our understanding of Arctic carbon dynamics and informing global climate models.
  • Guiding Adaptive Management Strategies: Offering scientific foundations for adaptive strategies that address the risks of ecological tipping points, benefiting both ecosystems and local communities.
Visit ECOTIP Arctic to learn more about the project and its approach to protect Arctic biodiversity and ensure the continued availability of essential ecosystem services.



Funding

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This project has received funding from the European Union’s