Emulating complex causal socio-ecological models in Digital Twins of Ocean

General Information

To fully realise the potential of the European Digital Twin Ocean (DTO) to empower citizens, entrepreneurs, scientists and policymakers with accessible knowledge about ocean and coastal domains, new models, tools and methods are needed to understand and assess the
complex interactions of social, economic and ecological factors. ECOTWIN delivers innovative graph theoretic solutions, developed using a multi-actor approach with policy makers, local communities, marine and coastal industries and communities, to address the
challenges of modelling marine socio-ecological systems and integrating these models into the emerging DTO framework. Innovations include four different classes of novel socio-ecological models based on concepts from mathematics (graph theory), control engineering
(stability), computer science (generative AI), statistics (Bayesian theory) and information science (entropy), combined with dynamic participatory feedback from stakeholders, and methodological protocols enabling seamless integration with DTOs by accounting for the
interoperability, accessibility, reliability and sustainability of transdisciplinary data. The models comprise: 1) quantitative causal graph theoretic models, 2) qualitative causal graph theoretic models, 3) network models with participatory feedback and 4) parallel generative
AI models. Through validation in four use cases in the North Sea (Belgium, Germany), Celtic Sea (Ireland), Thracian Sea (Greece) and Waterford Harbour (Ireland), tools will be developed for assessing scenarios including the relationships between factors including
ecosystem services and health, geopolitical factors, fishing job losses, tourism and marine renewables development. Results will enable what-if scenario analysis and impact assessments, exploring the interconnected impacts of environmental changes, human pressures and policy implementation to empower better decision-making to support ocean health social prosperity and a thriving blue economy.

Hereon will perform numeric ecological modelling in WP2 with ECOSMO E2E (model also used in CMEMS), provide social sciences expert input to all use case scenario analyses (WP 5) and lead the investigations relating to the German North Sea. Hereon leads WP3, bringing experience in managing transdisciplinary dialogues and marine policy risk assessment, and will contribute to developing the social models for all the use cases.

EU-Programme Acronym and Subprogramme Area	HORIZON-MISS-2023-OCEAN-01-08
Project Type	Research & Innovation Action (RIA)
Contract Number	Grant Agreement 101157369
Co-ordinator	The Provost, Fellows, Foundation Scholars & The Other Members of Board, of The College of The Holy & Undivided Trinity of Queen Elizabeth Near Dublin (IE)

Funding for the Project (€)	Funding for Hereon (€)
2,979,801	484,672

Contact Person at Hereon

Dr. Ute Daewel, Institute of Coastal Systems - Analysis and Modeling, Department Matter Transport and Ecosystem Dynamics (KST), Phone: +49 4152 87 2821; and Dr. Andreas Kannen, Institute of Coastal Systems - Analysis and Modeling, Department Human Dimensions of Coastal Areas (KSO), Phone: +49 4152 87 1874 E-mail contact

Participants

Blue Lobster IT Limited (UK), Democritus University of Thrace (GR), Eigen Vermogen van het Instituut voor Landbouw-, Visserij- en Voedingsonderzoek (BE), Ellinikos Georgikos Organismos - DIMITRA (GR), Gavin and Doherty Geosolutions Ltd (IE), IBM Ireland Limited (IE), Irish Coastal Environment Group Coastwatch (IE), Trinity College Dublin (IE)

Last Update: 02. September 2024